Q1 2026 Cannabis Earnings Preview: What Wall Street Expects From the Big Five MSOs
Cannabis earnings season kicks off in May, and analysts are recalibrating their models after a Q1 that delivered both encouraging market data and continued operational headwinds. The five largest multi-state operators — Curaleaf, Trulieve, Green Thumb Industries, Verano, and Cresco Labs — will report results that collectively represent approximately 35% of the U.S. legal cannabis market.
The consensus view heading into earnings: revenue growth is returning, but profitability remains elusive for most operators. Here’s what to expect from each company and the themes that will define the reporting season.
The Macro Setup
Q1 2026 delivered several positive macro developments for cannabis operators. Total U.S. cannabis sales grew approximately 14% year-over-year, the strongest quarterly growth rate since 2022. Ohio’s explosive growth contributed disproportionately, but even mature markets showed low-single-digit improvement as pricing stabilized after years of decline.
The SAFE Banking Act’s committee advancement provided a stock price catalyst that improved balance sheet optics for companies carrying significant debt. And the proposed federal hemp rules — if finalized — would eliminate a competitive threat that has eroded sales in multiple MSO markets.
Working against operators: the consolidation-driven layoffs that dominated Q4 2025 headlines continued into Q1, creating restructuring charges that will depress reported earnings. And the 280E tax provision — which prevents cannabis companies from deducting ordinary business expenses — continues to consume 10-15% of gross revenue for most operators.
Company-by-Company Preview
Curaleaf Holdings — Consensus revenue estimate: $342 million (vs. $318M Q1 2025). Curaleaf’s European expansion and Ohio launch are the primary growth drivers. Analysts expect European revenue to reach $45 million, up from $28 million a year ago, driven by German medical cannabis demand and the company’s expanded cultivation capacity in Portugal. The 400 corporate layoffs announced in January will show as restructuring charges of $12-18 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations: 22-24%.
Trulieve Cannabis — Consensus revenue estimate: $298 million (vs. $285M Q1 2025). Trulieve remains the dominant operator in Florida’s massive medical market, where its 140 dispensary locations generate approximately 25% market share. Ohio expansion is the key swing variable — analysts estimate Trulieve’s Ohio operations contributed $18-22 million in Q1, up from zero a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations: 30-33%, best-in-class.
Green Thumb Industries — Consensus revenue estimate: $278 million (vs. $260M Q1 2025). GTI’s “Rise” branded dispensary network expanded to 95 locations during Q1, with new openings in Ohio, New Jersey, and Minnesota. The company has been the most disciplined capital allocator among the big five, maintaining consistent profitability while peers oscillated between growth investment and cost-cutting. Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations: 28-31%.
Verano Holdings — Consensus revenue estimate: $225 million (vs. $208M Q1 2025). Verano’s strength in Illinois — where it operates 25 dispensaries under the Zen Leaf and MÜV brands — positions it well in a state that just crossed $5 billion in lifetime sales. New Jersey and Ohio provide additional growth. The company’s acquisition strategy has slowed, signaling a shift toward organic growth and margin improvement. Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations: 25-28%.
Cresco Labs — Consensus revenue estimate: $188 million (vs. $175M Q1 2025). Cresco’s wholesale-focused model faces the most direct exposure to price compression, but the company has offset margin pressure through its Sunnyside dispensary retail expansion and Floracal premium brand strategy. The integration of Columbia Care — acquired in 2023 — continues to generate cost synergies. Adjusted EBITDA margin expectations: 20-23%.
Key Themes to Watch
280E impact: Every MSO will provide commentary on the potential elimination of 280E through rescheduling. If cannabis moves to Schedule III, the immediate EBITDA margin improvement for the big five would be 8-12 percentage points — a transformative change. Companies will likely provide “pro forma” profitability metrics showing what their margins would look like without 280E.
SAFE Banking catalyst: If the bill reaches a floor vote before earnings calls, expect management teams to outline capital allocation plans predicated on banking access — reduced cash management costs, potential refinancing of high-interest debt, and credit card acceptance rollout timelines.
Ohio ramp: Every MSO with Ohio operations will be asked about the state’s trajectory. The $500 million milestone in ten months exceeded most internal projections, and the question now is whether supply will scale fast enough to prevent the product shortages that constrain conversion from the illicit market.
International expansion: Curaleaf and Tilray (which reports separately as a Canadian LP) will provide the most detailed international commentary. Canada’s export boom has validated the international opportunity, and U.S. MSOs are positioning for eventual federal reform that would enable cross-border operations.